Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents

in Pediatric Exercise Science
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Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13–16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74–0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg-1, min-1 to 8.27 ml·kg-1.min-1. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM’s Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31–0.62; Agreement = 75.5–89.9%; F = 0.08–0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM’s Healthy Fitness Zones.

Burns, Brusseau, and Eisenman are with the Dept. of Exercise and Sport Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT. Hannon is with the Dept. of Physical Activity and Sport Sciences, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV. Saint-Maurice and Welk are with the Dept. Of Kinesiology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA. Mahar is with the Dept. of Kinesioloogy, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC.

Address author correspondence to Ryan D. Burns at ryan.d.burns@utah.edu.