We are interested in forecasting or predicting the long-term viability of a minor league baseball team. The research question is whether this minor league team will be successful in attracting attendance over an extended period of time. An important financial issue is if the team is predicted to fail, then exactly how long will it last? A variety of methods are used in a step-by-step procedure to evaluate this viability. We first test whether attendance is evolving or stable through a unit root test, a test of market persistence. We then use the Bass model to assess whether the projected product life cycle is turning up or down. The Gompertz and logistic (Pearl) diffusion curves are next applied to home stand data of various lengths in order to make forecasts of an eventual dissolution point at which the team would financially collapse. Market saturation is not estimated, but set at the stadium capacity. Forecasting principles involving diffusion models are implemented. Analogies are used as a complementary forecasting technique to assess whether there is long-term potential for survival. Finally, logistic regression on cross-sectional data is used to supplement the forecasts. The results of the triangulation of diffusion curves, analogies, and logistic regression predict a decline in the minor league team’s ability to capture attendance.
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Forecasting the Long-Term Viability of an Enterprise: The Case of a Minor League Baseball Franchise
J. Thomas Yokum, Juan J. Gonzalez, and Tom Badgett
Moderating and Mediating Effects of Team Identification in Regard to Causal Attributions and Summary Judgments Following a Game Outcome
Robert Madrigal and Johnny Chen
Fans’ causal attributions for a game outcome refer to their assessments of the underlying reasons for why things turned out as they did. We investigate the extent to which team identification moderates fans’ attributional responses to a game outcome so as to produce a self-serving bias that favors the preferred team. Also explored is the ability of team identification to mediate the effect of attributions on the summary judgments of basking in reflected glory (BIRG) and satisfaction with the team’s performance. Consistent with a self-serving bias, we found that highly identified fans were more likely to attribute a winning effort to stable and internal causes than were lowly identified fans. Moreover, the extremity of response between winners and losers was greater among highly identified fans than lowly identified fans. Team identification was also found to mediate the influence of (a) stability on BIRGing and (b) internal control on BIRGing. No such mediation effects were observed in the case of satisfaction. Managerial implications are discussed.
A Framework of Strategic Approaches to Membership Growth in Nonprofit Community Sport
Kristen A. Morrison and Katie E. Misener
’s strategic plan. Clubs had been in existence for an average of 65 years ( SD = 43.58, range = 8–148 years) and had membership sizes ranging from 50 to 6,000 members ( M = 1050, SD = 1519.98). Five participating clubs reported a declining membership trend, six clubs reported a stable membership base, and
“Policy Analysis in Sport Management” Revisited: A Critique and Discussion
Scott R. Jedlicka, Spencer Harris, and Barrie Houlihan
to ignore and which issues to address ( Cairney, 2011 ). Consequently, over time, we see many policies remaining stable or experiencing limited incremental change and a smaller number of policies receiving intense periods of attention, which can bring about new ways of understanding the issues and
A Resource-Based View of Organizational Sustainability in Sport for Development
Wonjun Choi, Mi Ryoung Chung, Wonju Lee, Gareth J. Jones, and Per G. Svensson
inherently contingent on building stable financial resources. Our results indicate that this is particularly challenging for SFD organizations, as HHI was the only variable that did not change over the first 5 years of operation and was not significantly different across high, medium, or low resource
Examining the Efficacy of a Government-Led Sport for Development and Peace Event
Gareth J. Jones, Elizabeth Taylor, Christine Wegner, Colin Lopez, Heather Kennedy, and Anthony Pizzo
, & Chawansky, 2016 ; MacIntosh, Arellano, & Forneris, 2016 ; Sherry, Schulenkorf, Seal, & Nicholson, 2017 ). From this perspective, government-led implementation may offer more stable and controlled operationalization of the S4D Framework. Conversely, labor and employment laws for public employees are often
It’s a Party in the MLB: An Analysis of Shirking Between Games in Major League Baseball
Richard J. Paulsen
.1037/0021-9010.76.3.458 Holley , J.W. ( 1977 ). Tenure and research productivity . Research in Higher Education, 6 ( 2 ), 181 – 192 . Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/40195108 10.1007/BF00991419 Holmstrom , B. ( 1979 ). Moral hazard and observability . The Bell Journal of Economics, 10 ( 1 ), 74 – 91
State-Level Politics and Bias Predict Transgender Athlete Bans
Kelsey M. Garrison and George B. Cunningham
cognitively. Drawing from this thinking, Payne et al. suggested that although bias can and does exist at the individual level, it is more stable and a better predictor of subsequent outcomes when considered in the aggregate. They wrote, “it is more accurate to consider implicit bias as a social phenomenon
Creating New Sport Opportunities for Girls: Resource Acquisition and Mobilization Across Competitive Environments
Marlene A. Dixon, B. Christine Green, Arden Anderson, and Peter Evans
, they tend to have more stable and sustainable resources than do providers in bottom-up, decentralized systems. Even when practices are linked to funding and other resources, local organizations can and must find ways to mobilize those resources in unique ways to create or maintain a competitive
Entrepreneurial Bricolage and Innovation in Sport for Development and Peace Organizations
Fredrik O. Andersson, Per G. Svensson, and Lewis Faulk
frequently stressed for successful social venture innovation is access to resources that can be flexibly deployed or drawn on for new purposes, especially slack resources in the form of human capital and stable external support ( Meyer & Leitner, 2018 ; Ranucci & Lee, 2019 ). Resources represent the
