We are interested in forecasting or predicting the long-term viability of a minor league baseball team. The research question is whether this minor league team will be successful in attracting attendance over an extended period of time. An important financial issue is if the team is predicted to fail, then exactly how long will it last? A variety of methods are used in a step-by-step procedure to evaluate this viability. We first test whether attendance is evolving or stable through a unit root test, a test of market persistence. We then use the Bass model to assess whether the projected product life cycle is turning up or down. The Gompertz and logistic (Pearl) diffusion curves are next applied to home stand data of various lengths in order to make forecasts of an eventual dissolution point at which the team would financially collapse. Market saturation is not estimated, but set at the stadium capacity. Forecasting principles involving diffusion models are implemented. Analogies are used as a complementary forecasting technique to assess whether there is long-term potential for survival. Finally, logistic regression on cross-sectional data is used to supplement the forecasts. The results of the triangulation of diffusion curves, analogies, and logistic regression predict a decline in the minor league team’s ability to capture attendance.
J. Thomas Yokum, Juan J. Gonzalez and Tom Badgett
Denine Ellis, Ervin Sejdic, Karl Zabjek and Tom Chau
The strength of time-dependent correlations known as stride interval (SI) dynamics has been proposed as an indicator of neurologically healthy gait. Most recently, it has been hypothesized that these dynamics may be necessary for gait efficiency although the supporting evidence to date is scant. The current study examines over-ground SI dynamics, and their relationship with the cost of walking and physical activity levels in neurologically healthy children aged nine to 15 years. Twenty participants completed a single experimental session consisting of three phases: 10 min resting, 15 min walking and 10 min recovery. The scaling exponent (α) was used to characterize SI dynamics while net energy cost was measured using a portable metabolic cart, and physical activity levels were determined based on a 7-day recall questionnaire. No significant linear relationships were found between a and the net energy cost measures (r < .07; p > .25) or between α and physical activity levels (r = .01, p = .62). However, there was a marked reduction in the variance of α as activity levels increased. Over-ground stride dynamics do not appear to directly reflect energy conservation of gait in neurologically healthy youth. However, the reduction in the variance of α with increasing physical activity suggests a potential exercise-moderated convergence toward a level of stride interval persistence for able-bodied youth reported in the literature. This latter finding warrants further investigation.
Sharon R. Guthrie, T. Michelle Magyar, Stephanie Eggert and Craig Kain
Researchers have extensively documented gender differences in negotiation perceptions and performance which, in turn, may contribute to the persistence of salary and workplace inequity between women and men. The purpose of this study was to determine if these differences existed among a sample of 228 athletes (women n = 151 and men n = 77) who had competed in sport at high school, competitive club, college, or through professional levels for 15 years. More specifically, gender differences in the propensity to initiate negotiation were investigated in order to determine whether the three factors associated with the Babcock, Gelfand, Small, and Stayn (2006) Propensity to Initiate Negotiation Model (i.e., recognition of opportunity, sense of entitlement, and apprehension) explained and mediated such differences. Propensity to initiate negotiation (PIN) was operationally defined as self-reported responses to a series of hypothetical negotiation scenarios, as well as recent and anticipated future negotiation experiences. Females reported significantly more negotiation apprehension than males; they did not differ, however, in their recognition of opportunities and sense of entitlement associated with negotiation. The implications of these findings are discussed.
Although it has generated much theorizing (Csikszentmihalyi, 1975; Ellis, 1973; Harris, 1980; Mitchell, 1983), the phenomenon of stress-seeking behavior, as demonstrated in regular long-term involvement in the high-risk sports, has not been researched widely. In an attempt to go beyond the prevalent but simplistic "exhilaration' ' type of explanation for stress-seeking, this study examined the phenomenon in terms of the psychological characteristics associated with successful long-term involvement in the risk sport of rock climbing. Four behavioral characteristics were assessed: sensation seeking (SS), defined as "the need for varied, novel and complex sensations and experiences and the willingness to undertake physical and social risks for the sake of such experiences" (Zuckerman, 1979, p. 10); trait anxiety (TA), which refers to relatively stable individual differences in anxiety proneness (Spielberger, Gorsuch, & Lushene, 1970); need for achievement (NAch), which relates to the determinants of direction, magnitude, and persistence of behavior when the individual knows that his or her performance will be evaluated (Atkinson, 1964); and affiliation (AFF), which refers to the tendency to seek out, attain, and maintain a social bond with other people (Alderman, 1974).
Christopher R. D. Wagstaff
This study used a single-blind, within-participant, counterbalanced, repeated-measures design to examine the relationship between emotional self-regulation and sport performance. Twenty competitive athletes completed four laboratory-based conditions; familiarization, control, emotion suppression, and nonsuppression. In each condition participants completed a 10-km cycling time trial requiring self-regulation. In the experimental conditions participants watched an upsetting video before performing the cycle task. When participants suppressed their emotional reactions to the video (suppression condition) they completed the cycling task slower, generated lower mean power outputs, and reached a lower maximum heart rate and perceived greater physical exertion than when they were given no self-regulation instructions during the video (nonsuppression condition) and received no video treatment (control condition). The findings suggest that emotional self-regulation resource impairment affects perceived exertion, pacing and sport performance and extends previous research examining the regulation of persistence on physical tasks. The results are discussed in line with relevant psychophysiological theories of self-regulation and fatigue and pertinent potential implications for practice regarding performance and well-being are suggested.
Edwin A. Locke and Gary P. Latham
Studies of goal setting both in organizations and the laboratory have found that (a) specific, difficult goals lead to better performance than vague or easy goals; (b) short-term goals can facilitate the achievement of long-term goals; (c) goals affect performance by affecting effort, persistence, and direction of attention, and by motivating strategy development; (d) feedback regarding progress is necessary for goal setting to work; and (e) goals must be accepted if they are to affect performance. The implications of these findings for athletics are discussed. Ten hypotheses, based on previous research, are offered regarding the effects of goal setting in sports. In addition, suggestions are made regarding the following: setting goals for both practice and game situations; setting goals for different elements of athletic skill as well as for strength and stamina; using goals to increase self-confidence; using short-term goals to help attain long-term performance goals; improving performance by increasing task difficulty independently of goal difficulty; and obtaining goal acceptance and commitment in sports.
Torben Pottgiesser, Laura A. Garvican, David T. Martin, Jesse M. Featonby, Christopher J. Gore and Yorck O. Schumacher
Hemoglobin mass (tHb) is considered to be a main factor for sea-level performance after “live high–train low” (LHTL) altitude training, but little research has focused on the persistence of tHb following cessation of altitude exposure. The aim of the case study was to investigate short-term effects of various hematological measures including tHb upon completion of a simulated altitude camp. Five female cyclists spent 26 nights at simulated altitude (LHTL, 16.6 ± 0.4 h/d, 3000 m in an altitude house) where tHb was measured at baseline, at cessation of the camp, and 9 d thereafter. Venous blood measures (hemoglobin concentration, hematocrit, %reticulocytes, serum erythropoietin, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, and haptoglobin) were determined at baseline; on day 21 during LHTL; and at days 2, 5, and 9 after LHTL. Hemoglobin mass increased by 5.5% (90% confidence limits [CL] 2.5 to 8.5%, very likely) after the LHTL training camp. At day 9 after simulated LHTL, tHb decreased by 3.0% (90%CL −5.1 to −1.0%, likely). There was a substantial decrease in serum EPO (−34%, 90%CL −50 to −12%) at 2 d after return to sea level and a rise in ferritin (23%, 90%CL 3 to 46%) coupled with a decrease in %reticulocytes (−23%, 90%CL −34 to −9%) between day 5 and 9 after LHTL. Our findings show that following a hypoxic intervention with a beneficial tHb outcome, there may be a high probability of a rapid tHb decrease upon return to normoxic conditions. This highlights a rapid component in red-cell control and may have implications for the appropriate timing of altitude training in relation to competition.
Taegyu Kim, Eunkuk Kim and Hokyung Choi
To determine whether a neuromuscular rehabilitation program can improve postural stability and ankle-evertor strength and to examine the temporal changes and persistence of the rehabilitation effects in athletes with chronic ankle instability (CAI).
A total of 21 national women field hockey players participated in this study (CAI, n = 12; control, n = 9).
Main Outcome Measures:
Isokinetic ankle-evertor strength (peak torque [PT], total work [TW]) at 30°/s, 60°/s, 90°/s, and 120°/s, mediolateral stability index (MSI), and dynamic stability test (TCT). Data were recorded at baseline, 6 wk, and 24 wk.
At baseline, isokinetic evertor strength was comparable between groups. At 6 wk, the CAI group demonstrated significantly increased eccentric PT and TW at 30°/s and 60°/s and increased concentric/eccentric TW at 90°/s. The control group showed significantly increased concentric TW at 30°/s and increased concentric PT and TW at 90°/s. At 24 wk, except for eccentric PT at 60°/s and 120°/s, concentric/eccentric PT and TW were significantly increased in the CAI group. The control group showed significantly increased TW at all angular velocities regardless of contraction mode. The CAI group exhibited significant increases in concentric/eccentric evertor PT and TW at 120°/s in comparison with the control group. MSI and TCT decreased in both groups at 6 wk; however, the CAI group demonstrated significant increases in both measures at 24 wk, whereas the control group showed no significant change.
The results suggest that the neuromuscular rehabilitation program had an immediate effect on gaining eccentric evertor strength and improving postural control and appeared to contribute to enhancing the evertor strength of unstable ankles in the longer term. On the other hand, improved postural stability did not seem to persist.
Frazer Atkinson, Sandra E. Short and Jeffrey Martin
, which is team members’ confidence in their team’s capabilities to succeed. Second is effort—the team’s confidence in its ability to demonstrate a strong work ethic. Third, persistence is the team’s confidence to stay in the game when it seems like the team is playing poorly. Fourth, preparation is the
“a medium for the exchange of ideas. Such exchanges would also contribute to the construction of a common language of ideals among coaches and athletic directors across the land” (p. 52). “The Ballyhoo Yeas, 1919–1925” is a fitting title for Lindaman’s third chapter and highlights the persistence of