In our comment on Koehler and Conley’s (2003) findings on the “hot hand” belief, we want to emphasize the different conclusions that can be drawn from their results by applying the concept of ecological rationality. The choice of environmental contexts and structures imposes constraints on possible interpretations of the results obtained. Differentiating between the cognitive and behavioral levels of the phenomenon seems analytically useful, particularly if practical recommendations to professionals are to be made. The implications of Koehler and Conley’s data, new evidence, and the relationship between the perceived streaks of players and their base rates are discussed with the aim of developing empirically founded recommendations to professionals in sports, especially in real game situations.
Bartosz Gula and Markus Raab
Dustin A. Hahn
presentation form and content in social media in sport are in need of examination as an initial step toward understanding this growing landscape. Recent scholarly probes into sport broadcasting have explored a number of fruitful topics related to this in regard to production elements including base-rate
Jörn Köppen and Markus Raab
Belief in streaks—known as a hot (or cold) hand in sports—is a common element in human decision making. In three video-based experiments, we investigated the belief–behavior relationship and how allocation decisions in volleyball are affected by the expertise of participants measured in years of experience. The participants watched video sequences of two volleyball players in which the base rates of these players were kept constant. In addition, one player showed a hot hand (or cold hand), which was manipulated by length and perfection. Results showed that participants of different expertise levels were sensitive to all kinds of streaks, allocated more/less balls to the hot/cold player and reported strong beliefs in the hot or the cold hand. Developing tactics can benefit from this line of research.
Ronald E. Smith and Donald S. Christensen
The role of physical and psychological skills as predictors of performance and survival in professional baseball was studied in a sample of 104 minor league baseball players. Psychological and physical skills were largely uncorrelated with one another and appear to be measuring separate and independent skill domains. Preseason scores on the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory (ACSI-28) and coaches’/managers’ ratings of the same skills on an ACSI Rating Form each accounted for as much performance variance in batting average (approximately 20%) as did physical skills when differences in the latter were statistically controlled, and the psychological measures accounted for substantially more variance in pitchers’ earned run averages than did the expert ratings of physical skills. The psychological skills measures also predicted athletes’ survival in professional baseball 2 and 3 years after they were obtained. Bayesian hit rate anlayses indicated substantially increased survival predictability over simple base rate predictions.
Gary S. Goldfield
To compare liking and other attitudes toward physical activity (PA) and television (TV) viewing versus PA behavior and time viewing TV at baseline as predictors of response to lifestyle intervention in 30, 8 to 12 year old overweight/obese children.
Secondary analyses from a randomized controlled trial designed to increase PA and reduce sedentary behavior. PA was measured by accelerometers worn by participants every day for 8 weeks. TV viewing at baseline and during intervention was assessed by self-report.
Multiple regression analyses showed that base rates of PA and TV viewing significantly predicted changes in PA (Beta = .39, P < .05) and TV viewing (Beta = .37, P < .05) during the intervention, even after statistically controlling for child age, gender, body mass index, as well as baseline attitudes and liking of PA and TV viewing. However, self-reported liking of TV viewing and PA, perceived adequacy, and predilection were not predictive of response to intervention.
Baseline measure of PA and TV viewing behaviors may be better predictors of response to lifestyle intervention than measure of liking and other attitudinal variables of PA. The theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed.
Dustin A. Hahn, Matthew S. VanDyke and R. Glenn Cummins
remains whether this interest in base-rate information is reflected in how sport broadcasters present competition. Statistics in Broadcast Sport Given the demonstrated surveillance or information-seeking motive among sport fans in general ( Gantz, 1981 ), as well as viewers who play fantasy sport ( Brown
J.D. DeFreese, Michael J. Baum, Julianne D. Schmidt, Benjamin M. Goerger, Nikki Barczak, Kevin M. Guskiewicz and Jason P. Mihalik
. PubMed ID: 20183180 doi: 10.1080/09084280903297594 8. Garden N , Sullivan KA . An examination of the base rates of post-concussion symptoms: the influence of demographics and depression . Appl Neuropsychol . 2010 ; 17 ( 1 ): 1 – 7 . PubMed ID: 20146116 doi: 10.1080/09084280903297495 9. Lange
Mitch Abrams and Michelle L. Bartlett
“brand” of the university or organization. There are a variety of tools available to assess risk and determine likelihood of future offending. However, these tools have yet to be normed on athlete populations. Since sex offending is a comparatively low base-rate crime and there have not been sufficient
Brendan Dwyer, Joris Drayer and Stephen L. Shapiro
). * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001. To fully understand the meaning of the significant indicators of the decision to play DFS, the odds ratios were interpreted. It is important to note that the target population base rate for DFS participation among all TFS fantasy sports participants is 17% or 10