We are interested in forecasting or predicting the long-term viability of a minor league baseball team. The research question is whether this minor league team will be successful in attracting attendance over an extended period of time. An important financial issue is if the team is predicted to fail, then exactly how long will it last? A variety of methods are used in a step-by-step procedure to evaluate this viability. We first test whether attendance is evolving or stable through a unit root test, a test of market persistence. We then use the Bass model to assess whether the projected product life cycle is turning up or down. The Gompertz and logistic (Pearl) diffusion curves are next applied to home stand data of various lengths in order to make forecasts of an eventual dissolution point at which the team would financially collapse. Market saturation is not estimated, but set at the stadium capacity. Forecasting principles involving diffusion models are implemented. Analogies are used as a complementary forecasting technique to assess whether there is long-term potential for survival. Finally, logistic regression on cross-sectional data is used to supplement the forecasts. The results of the triangulation of diffusion curves, analogies, and logistic regression predict a decline in the minor league team’s ability to capture attendance.
J. Thomas Yokum, Juan J. Gonzalez and Tom Badgett
Zachary Zenko, Panteleimon Ekkekakis and Dan Ariely
There is a paucity of methods for improving the affective experience of exercise. We tested a novel method based on discoveries about the relation between exercise intensity and pleasure, and lessons from behavioral economics. We examined the effect of reversing the slope of pleasure during exercise from negative to positive on pleasure and enjoyment, remembered pleasure, and forecasted pleasure. Forty-six adults were randomly assigned to a 15-min bout of recumbent cycling of either increasing intensity (0–120% of watts corresponding to the ventilatory threshold) or decreasing intensity (120–0%). Ramping intensity down, thereby eliciting apositive slope of pleasure during exercise, improved postexercise pleasure and enjoyment, remembered pleasure, and forecasted pleasure. The slope of pleasure accounted for 35–46% of the variance in remembered and forecasted pleasure from 15 min to 7 days postexercise. Ramping intensity down makes it possible to combine exposure to vigorous and moderate intensities with a pleasant affective experience.
Daniel Rascher and Heather Rascher
An examination of possible expansion or relocation sites for the NBA is undertaken using a two-equation system requiring two-stage probit least squares to estimate. The location model forecasts the best cities for an NBA team based on the underlying characteristics of current NBA teams. The results suggest that Louisville, San Diego, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Norfolk appear to be the most promising candidates for relocation or expansion.
Jacquelyn Cuneen and Ray Schneider
Sports, Inc., a popular 1980s-era sport business weekly, addressed eight elements of sports business/management in a January 2,1989 issue entitled “Sports in the 90's: The Spiral Goes On.” The Sports, Inc. issue provided selected writers a forum in which to disseminate their practical forecasts for 1990s sport enterprise. This special issue of the Journal of Sport Management provides established and/or rising scholars with a forum to reflect on several of Sports, Inc.'s predictions and share their own scholarly assessments of sport's past and current business and managerial status.
Brian P. Soebbing, Pamela Wicker and Daniel Weimar
Previous research has examined the effect of changes in upper management positions on actual organizational performance; however, the influence of leadership changes on performance expectations has been largely neglected. This gap in the literature is surprising given that failure to meet expectations leads to dismissal. The purpose of the present research is to analyze how coaching changes affect expectations of a sports team’s performance. Betting lines are used as performance expectations because they are unbiased forecasts of game outcomes. This study uses data from 13 seasons of the German Football Bundesliga. Significant positive timelagged effects on performance expectations are evident when examining underlying expected performance. These positive effects are evident 8 weeks after the leadership change, indicating that new leaders are expected to need some time before significant performance improvements are expected to occur.
Michael Milano and Packianathan Chelladurai
With a view of verifying the optimistic forecasts of the growth of the sport industry, the paper presents an estimate of the size of the sport industry in 2005 and compares it to a 1995 estimate provided by Meek (1997). Following the methodology of Meek and the guidelines put forth by the United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (2007), we present three estimates for the size of the Gross Domestic Sport Product (GDSP) of the United States of America in 2005—conservative estimate of $168.469 billion, moderate estimate of $189.338 billion, and the liberal estimate of $207.503 billion. A comparison of the moderate estimate with Meek’s 1995 estimate shows that the size of sport industry, in relative terms, actually declined. The sources of the data, rationale for three different estimates, and the values for the components of the GDSP are described and explained.
Michael T. Manion, Peter Knight, Brenda Hayden Sheets and Norman O’Reilly
Chip Jahne loves the challenge of the game of golf and his career in the industry. A young executive at the Wisconsin Alliance for Golf (WAG), he has only two weeks to prepare and present well-reasoned arguments to the WAG Board for designing and implementing state golf trails. The great advantage to Wisconsin of a sponsored golf trail is that it attracts tourists to travel, to stay overnight while playing multiple days, and to spend not only on greens fees, but also on lodging, food, and beverage in the state. To prepare his case, he accesses secondary market research and conducts demographic and psychographic analyses. He realizes that extending the target market to nearby out-of-state population centers depends on funding from the state department of tourism. He preliminarily designs three golf trail options for the state and contemplates the use of social media as promotion tools. Wisconsin has three resources necessary for successful golf trails: 40 or more high-quality public access golf facilities, an excellent reputation as a state for outdoor recreation, and an interstate highway system connecting population centers to tourism destinations. The missing ingredient is a consensus by the interested stakeholders on how and when to take advantage of these resources for their mutual benefit. Chip recognizes that the economic benefits to golf trail participants will depend on his tourist projections and financial forecasts, so his design must seek to maximize them.
Down Increases Postexercise, Remembered, and Forecasted Pleasure,” which appeared in Issue 2 of Volume 38. The novelty, rigorous design, conceptual sophistication, and applied implications that may stem from the work render this meaningful contribution a worthy recipient of the award. I would like to
Marcus J. Colby, Brian Dawson, Peter Peeling, Jarryd Heasman, Brent Rogalski, Michael K. Drew and Jordan Stares
injury risk, identifying 50% of injuries in this cohort. As such, preventive strategies should ensure AF players attain >150 m of sprint volume per week to maintain a minimum workload for competitive demands. 2 Practitioners may also take a selective prevention approach 29 for players forecasted to