Improving the Prediction of Maturity From Anthropometric Variables Using a Maturity Ratio

in Pediatric Exercise Science
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Purpose: This study aimed to improve the prediction accuracy of age at peak height velocity (APHV) from anthropometric assessment using nonlinear models and a maturity ratio rather than a maturity offset. Methods: The dataset used to develop the original prediction equations was used to test a new prediction model, utilizing the maturity ratio and a polynomial prediction equation. This model was then applied to a sample of male youth academy soccer players (n = 1330) to validate the new model in youth athletes. Results: A new equation was developed to estimate APHV more accurately than the original model (new model: Akaike information criterion: −6062.1, R2 = 90.82%; original model: Akaike information criterion = 3048.7, R2 = 88.88%) within a general population of boys, particularly with relatively high/low APHVs. This study has also highlighted the successful application of the new model to estimate APHV using anthropometric variables in youth athletes, thereby supporting the use of this model in sports talent identification and development. Conclusion: This study argues that this newly developed equation should become standard practice for the estimation of maturity from anthropometric variables in boys from both a general and an athletic population.

Fransen is with the Bachelor of Sport and Exercise Science, Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Bush and Woodcock are with the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Novak is with the Bachelor of Exercise and Sport Science, Faculty of Science and IT, University of Newcastle, Ourimbah, New South Wales, Australia. Deprez, Vaeyens, and Lenoir are with Department of Movement and Sports Sciences,, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. Baxter-Jones is with the College of Kinesiology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.

Address author correspondence to Job Fransen at job.fransen@uts.edu.au.

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